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People dream of the beginning of a new energy era, a fairy-tale green world. However, the question is: Can this dream "consume" reality?
One fact that should not be overlooked is that in the current energy structure in China, new energy is still insignificant. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, coal accounted for 69% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2008. Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas accounted for 91% of the total; 7.4% of new energy sources such as wind power, solar energy and nuclear power accounted for less than 2%.
The pony is hard to pull the cart. Even if new energy with a proportion of less than 2% develops quickly, it may be difficult to carry people's good expectations and China's economy carts move forward in a short period of time.
Xiao Ju, deputy director of the China Low Carbon Network Academic Committee, believes that the complete system of China's relatively modern coal, oil, and natural gas industries was mainly built in the mid to late 1980s and the 1990s, and the design life is generally 30 years—50. In the past year, the entire system has only just matured. It is unimaginable to stop them in the short term. If such a locked-in energy structure is forced to change for a short period of time, it may have a destructive impact on the consumption structure and employment structure, and poor control may even affect social stability.
“It can be said with certainty that China’s current energy structure cannot be transformed fundamentally at least for the next 30 years and can only continue. New energy is indeed a good thing, but today they have no ability to pick the big shot, we can only put new energy. As a 'reserve team' rather than 'main force'." Shaw commented.
Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, cautioned that although the prospects for new energy are vast, it is only just a glimmer of hope. New energy is the hope of the future, but it is not the pillar of today; we need decades of hard work to truly create a new energy industry.
Although new energy is not a picture, the completion of the Noah’s Ark to save mankind is not just around the corner. If you don't stay with me, don't worry.
"The idea of ​​equating clean energy with 'new energy' is a misunderstanding, and clean energy also includes 'dirty energy' that can be cleaned up - the traditional fossil energy. With the fossil energy structure locked up for a long time, The most realistic approach now is to gradually implement the low-carbon improvement of the energy structure, and at the same time carry out a large-scale energy restructuring for the future to reserve technologies, capital, industrial structure, and social structure, etc., Xiao said.
In terms of the cleanliness of fossil energy, China has made great progress in recent years. “Coal is our dominant energy. Clean coal technology includes many aspects. In some aspects, like coal desulphurization and dust treatment, we have achieved a very big improvement over 15 years ago.†China Shenhua Coal-to-oil Chemical Co., Ltd. Beijing Du Minghua, vice president of the institute said.
Li Junfeng believes that although China has made great efforts in the cleanliness of coal, it is mainly to solve local pollution problems and it has contributed little to carbon dioxide emission reduction. To develop a low-carbon economy, China must move closer to the world, use less coal, and use more natural gas.
“We need to import a lot of natural gas and vigorously develop our own natural gas and coalbed methane,†said Li Junfeng. “Of course, renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power, and solar energy needs to be developed more vigorously, but we should avoid rushing forward and blindly developing. problem."
New energy: "reserve team" or "main force"?
New energy is now a "hot" word. Wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy, policy support, “staking the windâ€, overseas listing, coping with climate change, ensuring energy security, and leading the world economy to a low point... New energy carries people’s heavy expectations.