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Recently, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Department of the National Information Center and senior economist Xu Changming, analyzed the commercial vehicle market this year and said that from January to September, cumulative sales of commercial vehicles totaled 9.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%. The overall market situation is that cross-type passenger vehicles, micro-cards, light trucks and other self-use vehicles have grown rapidly, and professional transport vehicle vehicles have experienced slower growth in heavy trucks.
Xu Changming said that from a dynamic perspective, heavy truck sales picked up rapidly from the third quarter. The year-on-year growth in the three quarters of the third quarter reached about 80%, which exactly matched the economic situation. He said that in the third quarter of this year, China’s GDP growth rate increased from 6.1% in the first quarter to 8.9%, and the monthly growth rate of industrial added value also increased from the lowest 3.8% in February this year to 13.9% in September. Will be close to 16% to 17% of the normal level.
For the next two months, Xu Changming predicts that if there is no major change in the economic situation, the trend of sustained recovery will continue. It is predicted that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will reach about 9.5%, and the heavy truck performance in the next two months will also be Continuation of the trend of the previous 4 months. Overall, the performance of commercial vehicles this year will be better than last year. It is expected that the demand for heavy trucks this year will reach 630,000, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year.
When analyzing the next year's market, Xu Changming expects the heavy-duty truck market will maintain a growth rate of approximately 10% next year. There are mainly the following three aspects:
The first is the law of long-term development. Before 2020, China will still be in the stage of simultaneous acceleration of industrialization and urbanization. The average annual GDP growth will be around 9%. During this period, large-scale infrastructure construction will require a large number of trucks. At the same time, due to the uneven distribution of resources in China and the economic structure dominated by the secondary industry at this stage, the demand for transportation is still very strong. In the future, the year-on-year growth rate of 9% of GDP in China will also bring about an increase in the same volume of cargo. Usually, in all modes of transportation, China's road freight accounts for 60% to 70% of the country's freight, so there is room for improvement in truck freight. Referring to China's "7918" road development plan, by 2020, China will build a total mileage of 3 million kilometers of highways and 85,000 kilometers of highways, which will further increase the competitive advantages of road freight, especially the advantages of heavy truck transportation. According to the analysis of the law of long-term development of freight transportation, heavy trucks can maintain an annual growth rate of at least about 10% in the future.
The second is the law of short-term cycle fluctuations. From 1988 to 2009, the growth rate of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and GDP maintained a high degree of synchronization: When the general GDP growth rate was above 10%, the growth rate of medium-heavy trucks was faster, and it was evident on construction vehicles.
The third is that the natural growth of the market is becoming stronger. This is an important factor in the increase in sales of heavy trucks. Natural market growth refers to the economic development of commercial vehicles. From the point of view of the monthly wholesale volume of commercial vehicles from 2006 to 2009, unlike in previous years, the monthly wholesale volume of commercial vehicles has started to rise since June of this year. This is jointly driven by the strength of policies and the natural growth of the market. Before May, the heavy-duty truck market growth was driven by dump trucks. After June, the growth was driven by tractors, and the tractors were the most responsive to the development of the overall economy.
Xu Changming said that there is a long-term potential economic growth rate to support, there is a high degree of match in the short-term business cycle, there is a rebound in market forces, heavy truck market will maintain at least 9% to 10% growth rate next year.
On the export side, Xu Changming stated that the total amount of heavy truck exports this year is still falling. It was slightly better in September but still dropped by 15.2% year-on-year. Xu Changming stated that exports accounted for a quarter of China's total industrial output value, which resulted in a drop in the year-on-year growth rate of China's industrial added value, and thus the demand for trucks used for freight transportation declined. Looking at the export situation in recent years, China’s auto exports have maintained a relatively high growth rate from 2002 to 2008. However, due to the financial crisis, China’s auto export growth rate fell by 55.3% from January to September this year. The international economic situation is now improving, for example, the US’s GDP growth rate reached 3.5% in the third quarter. It is expected that the world economy will improve in the next year. It can be determined that automobile exports will be the lowest level in 2009 and will gradually recover in 2010.
View related topics: Commercial Vehicle Export Analysis