The price of oil was revised up on September 10

The rate of change in crude oil prices in the three regions once again broke through the 4% price adjustment red line, and the domestic oil product upgrade window opened for the fourth time. Analysts forecast that the retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel will be raised around September 10, which may be around 500 yuan/ton.

Gasoline and diesel sales show signs of tightening

According to the detection model of Zhongyu Information, as of yesterday, crude oil in the three places was trading at an average weighted price of US$108.948 per barrel for 22 consecutive days, the benchmark average price was US$104.510 per barrel, and the crude oil change rate in the three places was +4.25%, up 0.35 from the previous day. %. The change rate of crude oil in the three places and the ninth working day successfully broke through 4%.

“It is expected that the rate of change of crude oil in the three places will reach around 8% around September 10 and meet the conditions for 22 working days. By then, the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will usher in the 4th increase in the year. The current adjustment rate may be 500 yuan. / Ton (about 0.4 yuan / liter), the specific rate of adjustment will continue to be measured in the future of international oil prices and exchange rates, etc.," said Gao Chengsha, an analyst at Zhongyu Information.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis, affected by the expected increase in oil prices, there are signs of tightening of domestic gasoline and diesel resources, and the main resources of the Northwest Shaanxi-Gannan-Meng-San-District, Southwestern Sichuan-Chongqing-Guangsi, and North-Northern-Jinan-Yijin regions have been tightened. Multiple control pins. Shandong's refinery also has a long-lost sales situation, and many downstream customers have begun to pick up goods in advance.

International crude oil is unlikely to rise sharply

China's current oil price and international oil prices remain linked, said Gao Xin, an analyst at Zhongyu Information. At present, there is sufficient supply of crude oil in the world. However, as the economy slows and energy demand declines, it is unlikely that international crude oil prices will continue to rise significantly in the future. In addition, the "stagflation" problem caused by the previous financial crisis has seriously hurt the real economy, and countries are in urgent need of economic "low-cost" recovery. Aside from political and war factors, it is expected that the international crude oil price in the second half of the year is expected to fluctuate within the inter-community range, and it is not even possible to rule out the possibility of a decline.

The inflationary pressure has been significantly reduced. Steady growth will become the focus of the country’s economic policy. The CPI’s monthly decline will open up space for refined oil prices. "Since refined oil pricing adopts the '22 + 4%' mechanism, the correlation between refined oil price adjustments and CPI and other economic data has become more and more close," said Zhang Yonghao, analyst at Zhongyu Information. Before June of this year, China’s CPI accelerated its declining trend. The newly announced CPI fell below “2” in July and entered the “1 era”, indicating that the growth rate of domestic economy and domestic consumption will slow down and inflation will not come. . The decline in CPI may push the domestic refined oil prices lower.

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