March auto market growth 4.1% "Oil Throttle" incident hit Japanese cars

On April 10, the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as "CCC") released data: In March, sales of narrow-minded passenger vehicles in China were 1979,714, a significant increase of 37.3% from the previous quarter and an increase of 4.1% year-on-year; From January to March, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars in China reached 5,669,400, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, which was better than the difficult situation of zero growth during the same period last year.


In response, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said, first of all, manufacturers' expectation for market growth in March was not strong, leading to a decelerating feature of the auto market at the end of the month; secondly, the sales of Japanese cars affected by “accelerator” incidents were significantly affected. The decline led to the overall poor performance of the auto market. Finally, with the tightening of financial deleverage, the demand for commercial circulation-type MPV continued to be weak, making some outstanding self-owned brands dull. As a result, the auto market performance in March was lower than expected.

New Energy Promotes Development of SUVs for Passenger Cars

In terms of specific models, sales of cars, SUVs, and MPVs all increased month-on-month in March, and the SUV models and cars achieved year-on-year growth. This is also the main driving force for the growth of the auto market; however, the long-standing MPVs are still in a weak state. Can stop the downward trend.

Among them, although the SUV model still maintains a double-digit growth compared to the previous quarter, its growth rate has been slowing down. In March, SUV models sold a total of 844,337 units, which was a 33.3% increase from the previous period and an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, dropping the altar that had maintained a double-digit growth year-on-year. Cui Dongshu said that in March, the SUV growth rate returned to normal. On the one hand, the Japanese SUV represented by the Honda CR-V was affected by the “accelerator” incident, the growth rate slowed down or declined; on the other hand, the self-owned brand SUV growth rate. Not strong, resulting in poor overall performance of SUV models.

In March, a total of 973,948 cars were sold, a 42.6% increase from the previous quarter and an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, which was in line with the SUV growth rate. In the first three months, the cumulative sales of sedan cars were 2,705,687 units, an increase of 5% over the same period of last year. It is not difficult to see that the sedan sales once again opened up the distance with the SUV, and its performance in the slightly cold March auto market is also strong. Cui Dongshu said that the continuous selling of new energy vehicles is the core force that will help stabilize the car market.

The downturn in the MPV market remained poor in March. In March, MPV sold a total of 161,429 vehicles, which represented an increase of 28.8% from the previous period and a decrease of 19.2% year-on-year; from January to March, MPVs sold a total of 454,761 vehicles, which was a decrease of 18% from the same period of last year. Cui Dongshu believes that the main reason for the decline of MPV is the continued downturn of self-owned brands, resulting in a weak pattern of MPV market. In addition, March production and sales volume of MPV are all about 160,000 units, and exports only 3,000 vehicles, basically in a state of equilibrium.

As for the performance of the auto market in April, Cui Dongshu predicts that firstly, due to Ching Ming and May Day holidays, the whole month will be only 20 working days, plus some companies will increase their monthly leave to allow employees to make reasonable arrangements for the spring holiday; secondly, May 1st. The value-added tax rate for manufacturing and other industries is lowered by 1 point, and it is expected that part of the domestic wholesale sales at the end of April may shift to the beginning of May. Finally, as the problem of the real estate bubble continues, the poor consumption in the Midwest and small and medium-sized cities will still affect the independent brands. The entry-level consumption growth, so production and sales performance should not be strong.

Of course, the auto market in April is also a good one. Cui Dongshu said that in April, the Beijing International Auto Show and the auto exhibitions around the country were conducive to the launch of many new cars and the dissemination of massive amounts of information, which had a greater stimulating effect on car sales.

In addition, Cui Dongshu also predicted the full-year automobile market in 2018. He believes that with the increasingly complex trade war between China and the United States, although the overall domestic auto market has grown steadily, it may also enter a relatively complicated state, because the property market is booming in 2017 and the Korean system. The low base of the car, this year's market growth still has a good foundation.


Plug-in hybrid models have huge potential for new energy and unified prices are imminent

In March, new energy passenger vehicles showed a structural strength. The data shows that in March, sales of new energy vehicles reached 56,000 vehicles, an increase of 100% year-on-year and an increase of 90% from the previous month. Cui Dongshu said that with the gradual emergence of favorable policies, the trend of new energy remains relatively strong growth.

In fact, with the release of the new energy subsidy policy in 2018, each car company began to adjust its product strategy in line with the policy. Among them, the Chery Tiggo 3xe and Beiqi New Energy EX360, which were listed in March, have a competitive price range of less than 100,000 yuan after the subsidized national unified price range. Cui Dongshu pointed out that self-owned brands are currently focused on A0-class SUVs in the breakthrough point of new energy, and both have adopted the practice of filling in the local subsidy gap. This not only protects the positive significance of subsidy, but also improves the regional division of new energy vehicle development. problem.

According to the idea of ​​new energy vehicles developed by the national ministries such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national policy system for the development of new energy is a combination of subsidy and responsibility indicators. The purpose is to gradually free the company from dependence on subsidies and achieve independent development. Cui Dongshu said that "some car companies will first get rid of their dependence on land compensation, and they will gradually get rid of their dependence on national subsidies in the future and eventually move toward marketization."

It is worth noting that plug-in hybrid vehicles are gradually becoming more abundant in the announcement of the automobile fuel consumption released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the near future. Among them, self-owned brands such as BYD, SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile Group are the main manufacturers plug-in hybrid models; and recently plugged hybrid models of Changan, Great Wall, Geely and other companies have also appeared. In addition, GM, Ford, Hyundai, and other brands of hybrid models are also registered announcements and sales, the future of the blending models is still a large potential market.

In addition, with the introduction of an autonomous pure-electric A0 SUV into the market, the new energy market has shifted from subsidizing to stimulating consumer demand. Cui Dongshu said, "This month BYD and other companies have performed well in the blending model, which is a good phenomenon for independent brands to break through."

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